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In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAmerican Express has the best credit quality compared to other credit card issuers: CFRA's YokumAlexander Yokum, CFRA Research banking analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down American Express' quarterly earnings results, the state of the consumer, and more.
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"What we've seen is deposit pressures escalate more than previously anticipated," said Alexander Yokum, analyst at CFRA Research, who has a neutral view on regional banks. "A lot of these regional banks, they have less deposits, so if they lose deposits, it can really impact their operating results," Yokum said. "So, higher for longer, I think for a lot of regional banks, would be negative." Here's what Wall Street analysts expect from regional banks this season. Other regional banks reporting this week include Fifth Third Bancorp .
Persons: Alexander Yokum, Yokum, Goldman Sachs, Ryan M, Nash, America's Ebrahim H, Poonawala, CFRA's Yokum, Citi's Keith Horowitz, " Horowitz, Huntington Bancshares Huntington Bancshares Organizations: Regional Banking, U.S . Bancorp, New York Community, CFRA Research, JPMorgan Chase, T Bank, PNC, " Bank, America's, U.S . Bancorp U.S . Bancorp, U.S . Bank, Bank of America, Huntington, Comerica KeyCorp, Comerica, Fifth Third Bancorp Locations: U.S, New, Ohio
Regional bank stocks, in particular, gained as much as 35% before the bond warnings and downgrades began. The higher interest rates bond analysts cited hurt profits some, but most banks' net interest income and margins were higher than a year before. The ratings actions pushed the regional bank stock index 10% lower for the month-long period ending Sept. 8, according to Morningstar (the Moody's bank warning was issued August 7). By any reckoning, the argument about banks is about two things: Interest rates and real estate, specifically office buildings. The average regional bank stock rose 8% after earnings, Morgan Stanley said, with banks beating profit forecasts by an average of 5%.
Persons: Morningstar —, downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Jill Cetina, Cetina, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Scott Rechler, Jeff Greene, Alexander Yokum, Dick Bove, Bove, Yokum Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's Investors Service, Poor's, Fitch, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Fedwatch, RXR, Research, Odeon Capital Locations: First Republic, Regional, Moody's, U.S
JPMorgan on Monday morning emerged as the white-knight buyer of First Republic Bank. More wealth advisors for high-net-worth clientsJPMorgan's wealth management ambitions will also get a boost from its purchase of First Republic. The smaller bank has about 150 high-end advisors who will join JPMorgan's brokerage business unit, JPMorgan Advisors. "If they can retain the wealth advisors and not lose too many more, I think it will be very advantageous. "This helps bring the bank crisis phase to the home stretch in our view," wrote Wells Fargo's Mayo.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRegional banks have the potential for significant deposit declines, says CFRA's Alexander YokumAlexander Yokum, banking analyst at CFRA Research, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss regional bank risks, net interest margin compression, and bank loan growth numbers.
"There's a lot of headaches about calamity in commercial real estate," said Kevin Fagan, director of commercial real estate analysis at Moody's Analytics. But credit in commercial real estate has performed well until now, and it's far from clear that U.S. credit issues spreading outward from real estate is likely. Analysts raised concerns that developers might default on a big chunk of $3.1 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate loans Goldman Sachs says are outstanding. "We're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate," Powell said at a March22 press conference. But there are reasons to believe lending issues in commercial real estate will be contained, Fagan said.
"Each bank is going to apply those credit standards differently," a source told Insider. Requiring higher minimum credit scores and minimum repayments and curbing credit limits were among tweaks banks were making. Lending to consumers dropped and credit standards and terms "continued to tighten sharply," with marked rises in loan pricing. A "dramatic worsening of firm and consumer access to bank credit," is how a 2014 paper on the Federal Reserve's website describes a credit crunch. Tighter lending standards may have a big impact on floating-rate loans versus fixed loans, CFRA equity analyst Alexander Yokum told Insider.
In fact, experts say now may be the time to consider what small banks have to offer. Depositors appear to be fleeing small banks because they fear problems in the banking sector could spread beyond the tiny number of troubled banks that have made headlines so far. “Which is bad for them, but good for their customers.”Of course, online banks also offer savers high interest rates that meet or exceed what most small banks offer. Small bank loansIf you are looking for a loan, small banks have a lot to offer, too. And if you already have a relationship with a small bank, you might be able to obtain more favorable borrowing terms.
East West Bancorp and Citizens Financial made its list of stocks investors should look at. Regional banks with strong deposit balances and have high percentages of insured deposits are solid bets. Silicon Valley Bank's deposits fell 13% during that same period as the bank's primary venture capital customers struggled with rising interest rates. Yokum called Regions Financial is a leader in insured deposits, with an outsized 63% of its deposits insured. Yokum has "buy" ratings on Citizens Financial Group, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, Synovus Financial and Webster Financial.
A possible consequence of the banking crisis is that households and businesses may soon find it harder to get a loan from their bank. Around $1 trillion in deposits have been pulled from smaller and mid-sized banks since the Fed began hiking rates last year, with half that fleeing banks since SVB collapsed. "The uncertainty generated by deposit movements could cause banks to become more cautious on lending," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note. "This risk is heightened by the fact that mid- and small-size banks play a disproportionately large role in US bank lending." This likely could impact the trajectory of the economy, as regional and community banks are a massive source of credit to Main Street borrowers.
Households and businesses may find it harder to get loans from regional banks as people pull deposits from those lenders. "The greatest vulnerabilities with respect to credit creation going forward lie with non-mortgage bank lending to households and mortgage bank lending for non-financial non-corporate businesses," JPMorgan said. Regional banks are "very important" to the financial system, CFRA's Yokum said. Regional banks can potentially give better service, more customized products, potentially higher deposit rates," he said. Some hefty figures illustrate the "disproportionately large" role small banks hold in lending in the US.
Most analysts say what happened earlier isn't likely to spread across the banking sector and cause a full-blown meltdown. 'Banks are OK' — SVB and Signature were 'unique' failuresWhat happened at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank could theoretically happen anywhere if depositors get worried enough about the safety of their money. Both banks catered to volatile industries that needed cash quickly — tech startups for SVB and crypto-related companies in the case of Signature. Nathan Stovall head of financial institutions research at S&P Global Market Intelligence"It was really those unique characteristics that led to those issues," says Nathan Stovall, head of financial institutions research at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investors have since bid down shares of other banks — First Republic among them — whose profiles bear resemblance to SVB and Signature.
"Not only are these big banks not sitting around and waiting for the phone to ring, they are also being proactive." Amid the nation's most troubling turmoil in banking since the global financial crisis nearly 15 years ago, the big banks are flexing their collective muscle. The 2008 financial crisis humbled the banking behemoths; the 2023 crisis of regional banks has now only cemented their power. For an increasingly stretched financial system, the big banks provide a needed stability. The flight to safety that is benefiting the big banks will have a cost, however.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSVB crisis: Lack of diversification was the 'biggest problem' for banks that went down, analyst saysAlexander Yokum of CFRA discusses Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the banks caught in the fallout.
"You're going to see every board member tell people to keep your money in multiple bank accounts," said Wesley Chan, cofounder and managing partner at FPV Ventures. "I'm not concerned about Bank of America," one business owner said as they left a Bank of America branch on Monday. Big banks can be less competitive, for example, on interest rates because of the security they offer. I think you'll see startups, in particular, questioning moving to the big banks given just how much more expensive it is," Matheson added. "The big banks are in very good shape, and so it probably is a stabilizing decision to move those deposits.
After what happened with bank stocks Monday, investor attention is going to shift to the Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Conference that opens today. Regional bank stocks tend to move with the S & P, so that is a very big selloff, and volumes were elevated as well. Others think investors are simply catching up with the "higher for longer" interest rate environment. You hear 'recession' and you sell bank stocks," Wells Fargo's long-time bank analyst Mike Mayo said on CNBC yesterday. "If we are entering a slower growth economy, will banks have to put aside more money for loans going bad?," Siefers told me.
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